Evidence-first, falsifiable claims re-scored from public data on every build. Data fetched 2026-11-01T09:02:59Z. Built at NEAR HACKATHON by IndiciaDesk · repo · THESIS.md
| ID | Claim | Metric | Value | Threshold | Verdict | Proves wrong |
|---|
| C1 | NEAR Intents settles volume far larger than NEAR's own DeFi | Intents 1y volume / NEAR chain TVL (x) | 164.3 | > 50x | BULL | 1y Intents volume below 50x chain TVL |
| C1b | Intents volume momentum is positive | Intents volume, last 30d vs prior 30d (%) | -19.5 | > 0% | BEAR | 30d volume below prior 30d |
| C2 | Usage is growing: daily active accounts up year over year | Active accounts, 90d avg vs same window 1y ago (%) | -76.1 | > +10% | BEAR | 90d avg active accounts below the 1y-ago level |
| C3 | Transactions are growing year over year | Txns/day, 90d avg vs 1y ago (%) | -84.4 | > +10% | BEAR | 90d avg txns below 1y-ago level |
| C4 | Fees do not offset issuance: NEAR is not deflationary | Fees paid in 1y as % of net supply growth | 2.0 | bull only if >= 100% | BEAR | fees reach >=100% of net new supply |
| C5 | Stablecoin liquidity on NEAR is growing | Stablecoin supply vs 1y ago (%) | -43.0 | > +20% | BEAR | stablecoin supply below 1y-ago level |
| C6 | Onchain TVL is not growing | DefiLlama NEAR TVL vs 1y ago (%) | 29.8 | bull only if > 0% | BULL | TVL above 1y-ago level |
| C7 | Valuation is rich vs peers on fees | P/F (mcap / 1y chain fees), rank among 5 L1s (1 = cheapest) | 5.0 | bull only if rank <= 2 | BEAR | NEAR ranks in the 2 cheapest by P/F |
| C8 | Core development stays active | nearcore commits last 12w vs prior 12w (%) | -9.1 | > -25% | BULL | commits drop >25% vs prior 12w |
| C9 | Derivatives positioning is not crowded long | Hyperliquid NEAR funding, 30d avg annualized (%) | 11.1 | < 15% (default ~11%) | BULL | 30d funding > 15% annualized (crowded longs) |